Cotton Bowl odds, pick, best bet

The 10-2 Missouri Tigers battle the 11-1 Ohio State Buckeyes in this year’s highly anticipated Cotton Bowl, which is likely the best non-Playoff bowl game this year. 

Sadly, some of the game’s shine has been worn off by portal opt-out activity, specifically on the Buckeye sideline. 

Starting quarterback Kyle McCord and all-world wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. won’t play in the bowl.

The Buckeyes are down only three other starters aside, including only one on defense, but it’s hard to see them moving the ball without McCord and Harrison. 

Conversely, Missouri head coach Eli Drinkwitz expects everyone healthy to be available for the Cotton Bowl as the Tigers look to cap off a magical season. 

Throw in the motivational angle, and I’m throwing a wad of cash at Mizzou in the first of this year’s New Year’s Six bowls. 

Missouri vs. Ohio State odds

Missouri vs. Ohio State prediction

(8 p.m. ET, ESPN)

A big part of handicapping bowl season is handicapping motivation. 

And I think the Buckeyes are disappointed to play in the Cotton Bowl rather than the College Football Playoff. 

The Buckeyes are championship or bust every year, and losing the Big Ten to Michigan for the third straight season stings for Ryan Day and Co. 

Plenty of Buckeyes are graduating or moving on, and I think Coach Day is working toward a rebuilding year in 2024. 

Conversely, the Tigers are ecstatic to play in a New Year’s Six bowl. 

The last time Mizzou won 10 games was in 2014. The Tigers went 47-51 in the eight years between these two big seasons.

A Cotton Bowl victory means something to the Tigers and their fans. The same cannot be said for Ohio State. 

Between quarterback Brady Cook, running back Cody Schrader, and wide receiver Luther Burden III, Missouri’s offense is among the nation’s best, ranking 10th in EPA per Play and 14th in Pass Success Rate while scoring over 34 points per game. 

If you need physical video evidence of Missouri’s explosiveness, look no further than this fourth-quarter game-winning drive against Florida, where Cook and Burden converted a 4th and 17 before driving a few more plays for the field goal. 

Ohio State’s defense is elite, as defensive coordinator Jim Knowles improved the unit significantly in his second season. 

But Missouri can score on anyone, including an unmotivated Ohio State unit. 

However, the more significant Ohio State concerns are on offense. I’m unsure if the Buckeyes can keep pace with Cook and Co. 

I’ve never been a fan of McCord, but he’d be an upgrade over backup Devin Brown, who boasts 22 collegiate passing attempts. 

Harrison’s absence is far more significant. 

The superstar salvaged Ohio State’s offense all year, accounting for over a third of the team’s aerial output. 14 of McCord’s 24 passing touchdowns went to Harrison. 

I don’t think the Buckeyes can move the ball on anybody without him. 

Even worse, Missouri’s most significant weakness lies in the secondary, where the Tigers rank 94th nationally in EPA per Pass allowed. In a perfect world, McCord to Harrison would play for the Buckeyes.

Betting on College Football?

Ohio State will try to run the ball into a Mizzou front seven that ranks 18th nationally in Rush Success Rate allowed and 39th in EPA per Rush allowed.

Between Ty’Ron Hopper, Chuck Hicks, Johnny Walker Jr. and Darius Robinson, the Tigers held their own against opposing rushing attacks all season, keeping nine of 12 opponents under 150 rushing yards. 

The Under might not be a bad look in what could be a low-scoring rock fight, but I think the total is too low at anything under 51 or 50.

Instead, I’ll bet on Cook and a highly motivated Missouri team to score more than a shorthanded, dispirited, second-stringed Ohio State squad. 

Missouri vs. Ohio State pick

Missouri +3 (-105) at BetMGM | Play to PK (-110)

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